Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.634594 0.733140 0.838758 0.960010 1.094988 1.240255 1.408032
2025-02-16 0.446223 0.569839 0.712779 0.888838 1.098325 1.338051 1.631470
2025-02-23 0.308208 0.437112 0.598236 0.811008 1.080857 1.407789 1.829513
2025-03-02 0.207503 0.329681 0.495516 0.730661 1.048305 1.454821 2.005629
2025-03-09 0.150050 0.267189 0.439563 0.700994 1.075175 1.578035 2.289223
2025-03-16 0.106721 0.214579 0.387188 0.667264 1.091343 1.688328 2.566944
2025-03-23 0.082896 0.186922 0.366757 0.676619 1.169208 1.890375 2.987421
2025-03-30 0.057865 0.149377 0.322235 0.640603 1.174038 1.988051 3.269574
2025-04-06 0.041948 0.123989 0.292880 0.624008 1.206095 2.127852 3.623421
2025-04-13 0.029686 0.101576 0.263522 0.601774 1.225190 2.248356 3.956793
2025-04-20 0.022760 0.089092 0.250989 0.608084 1.292945 2.450675 4.429537
2025-04-27 0.016817 0.076316 0.234457 0.603446 1.340104 2.622466 4.865187
2025-05-04 0.012173 0.065121 0.219327 0.600794 1.394068 2.816074 5.359968
2025-05-11 0.008805 0.055971 0.206602 0.601101 1.454029 3.025657 5.896935
2025-05-18 0.005789 0.045472 0.186644 0.581033 1.471223 3.161397 6.319848
2025-05-25 0.003451 0.035139 0.162888 0.546445 1.453666 3.232221 6.636078
2025-06-01 0.002321 0.029753 0.152547 0.543304 1.502278 3.429547 7.186098
2025-06-08 0.001450 0.024417 0.139900 0.531104 1.529145 3.587220 7.674753
2025-06-15 0.001075 0.022340 0.138737 0.550886 1.631090 3.898292 8.459073
2025-06-22 0.000598 0.017701 0.124571 0.529253 1.633230 4.011180 8.884508
2025-06-29 0.000350 0.014690 0.115758 0.521711 1.667963 4.191857 9.445717
2025-07-06 0.000184 0.011832 0.105700 0.507454 1.683840 4.334094 9.940720
2025-07-13 0.000114 0.010484 0.102842 0.516812 1.760817 4.609071 10.703041